IC Securities has revised its forecast for the US dollar to Ghana cedi exchange rate at the end of 2024, increasing it from GH¢13.2/US$ to GH¢15.91/US$.
This adjustment reflects the current macroeconomic climate.
The firm explained that after the Bank of Ghana’s unexpected policy rate cut in January 2024, they anticipated strong selling pressure on the cedi.
They delayed revising their forecast until mid-year, expecting certain financial inflows and the final tranche of the cocoa syndicated loan for the 2023/24 season.
However, these inflows fell short, and the market was flooded with cedis.
The Bank of Ghana’s adjustment to the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) had limited impact on reducing local currency liquidity, as banks converted their maturing securities into CRR positions. Additionally, the clearance of contractor arrears contributed to the increased supply of cedis in the forex market, putting further pressure on the currency.
IC Securities noted that approximately $2.3 billion is expected to flow into the country in the latter part of 2024. These inflows are seen as credible and likely to occur within the indicative timelines.
While the cedi might experience short-term appreciation due to these inflows, domestic investors are expected to continue hedging their bets as the December elections approach, potentially neutralising any gains.
Currently, the cedi is trading at around GH¢15.00 to the dollar in forex bureaus. IC Securities expects the exchange rate to rise to GH¢15.91/US$ by the end of 2024, influenced more by the anticipation of World Bank inflows than by actual foreign exchange sales, as the Bank of Ghana maintains constrained interventions and focuses on building reserves.
Source: ClassFMonline.com